Expected game total = home team's home RPG + away team's road RPG. A direct read of historical scoring rates for the specific context (home team at home, away team on the road). No simulation required.
Accuracy
52.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-3.1%
Brier Score
0.249
Calibration Slope
0.68
Avg CLV (Open)
+45.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+46.5 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
67.5%
% Positive CLV (Close)
67.9%