Expected game total = home team's home RPG + away team's road RPG. A direct read of historical scoring rates for the specific context (home team at home, away team on the road). No simulation required.
Accuracy
52.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-2.3%
Brier Score
0.249
Calibration Slope
0.58
Avg CLV (Open)
+18.3 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+20.9 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
58.1%
% Positive CLV (Close)
58.5%