Expected game total = home team's home RPG + away team's road RPG. A direct read of historical scoring rates for the specific context (home team at home, away team on the road). No simulation required.
Accuracy
55.0%
ROI (Flat 2%)
2.9%
Brier Score
0.247
Calibration Slope
1.00
Avg CLV (Open)
+28.1 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+30.7 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
59.1%
% Positive CLV (Close)
60.9%