Tools

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Model Probability (%)

Market Odds (American)

Bankroll ($)

Kelly Mode

Edge+2.62%EV (per unit)+5.00%Market implied52.4%Full Kelly f*5.50%Half Kelly2.75%Recommended bet$2.75

Away OddsHome Odds

Hold:4.76%Fair Away:50.0%Fair Home:50.0%

Number of legs3

Assumed vig/leg4.76%

Standard -110/-110 market = 4.76% vig per leg.

Leg 1 odds→ 52.4% implied

Leg 2 odds→ 52.4% implied

Leg 3 odds→ 52.4% implied

Book prices it at

14.37%

implied hit rate (vig baked in)

+596

what you get paid

Fair value

12.50%

true hit rate (no-vig)

+700

what you should get paid

You're giving up 104 odds points. Per-leg vig (~4.8%) compounds across all 3 legs, inflating the book's implied hit rate by 1.87 probability points.