Expected game total = home team's home RPG + away team's road RPG. A direct read of historical scoring rates for the specific context (home team at home, away team on the road). No simulation required.
Accuracy
53.8%
ROI (Flat 2%)
2.8%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
0.51
Avg CLV (Open)
+27.4 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+32.8 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
59.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
60.2%