Expected game total = home team's home RPG + away team's road RPG. A direct read of historical scoring rates for the specific context (home team at home, away team on the road). No simulation required.
Accuracy
52.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.9%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
0.66
Avg CLV (Open)
+28.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+34.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
61.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
63.1%