P(home covers -1.5) via a normal approximation of the run-difference distribution. Variance is estimated as 1.2× the expected total (overdispersed Poisson). Uses home/away RPG splits for accuracy.
Accuracy
52.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-3.1%
Brier Score
0.249
Calibration Slope
0.68
Avg CLV (Open)
+45.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+46.5 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
67.5%
% Positive CLV (Close)
67.9%