P(home covers -1.5) via a normal approximation of the run-difference distribution. Variance is estimated as 1.2× the expected total (overdispersed Poisson). Uses home/away RPG splits for accuracy.
Accuracy
52.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-2.3%
Brier Score
0.249
Calibration Slope
0.58
Avg CLV (Open)
+18.3 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+20.9 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
58.1%
% Positive CLV (Close)
58.5%