P(home covers -1.5) via a normal approximation of the run-difference distribution. Variance is estimated as 1.2× the expected total (overdispersed Poisson). Uses home/away RPG splits for accuracy.
Accuracy
55.0%
ROI (Flat 2%)
2.9%
Brier Score
0.247
Calibration Slope
1.00
Avg CLV (Open)
+28.1 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+30.7 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
59.1%
% Positive CLV (Close)
60.9%