P(home covers -1.5) via a normal approximation of the run-difference distribution. Variance is estimated as 1.2× the expected total (overdispersed Poisson). Uses home/away RPG splits for accuracy.
Accuracy
52.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.9%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
0.66
Avg CLV (Open)
+28.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+34.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
61.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
63.1%