P(home covers -1.5) via a normal approximation of the run-difference distribution. Variance is estimated as 1.2× the expected total (overdispersed Poisson). Uses home/away RPG splits for accuracy.
Accuracy
53.8%
ROI (Flat 2%)
2.8%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
0.51
Avg CLV (Open)
+27.4 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+32.8 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
59.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
60.2%