Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83) with home/away RPG splits. Uses the home team's home scoring rate vs. the away team's road scoring rate — naturally embedding park effects and travel fatigue.
Accuracy
52.1%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-3.7%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
0.57
Avg CLV (Open)
+51.7 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+53.3 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
69.3%
% Positive CLV (Close)
69.4%