Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83) with home/away RPG splits. Uses the home team's home scoring rate vs. the away team's road scoring rate — naturally embedding park effects and travel fatigue.
Accuracy
53.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
1.1%
Brier Score
0.248
Calibration Slope
0.60
Avg CLV (Open)
+37.8 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+43.8 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
63.4%
% Positive CLV (Close)
65.6%