Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83) with home/away RPG splits. Uses the home team's home scoring rate vs. the away team's road scoring rate — naturally embedding park effects and travel fatigue.
Accuracy
55.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
4.0%
Brier Score
0.246
Calibration Slope
0.82
Avg CLV (Open)
+16.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+18.6 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
54.2%
% Positive CLV (Close)
56.3%