Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83) with home/away RPG splits. Uses the home team's home scoring rate vs. the away team's road scoring rate — naturally embedding park effects and travel fatigue.
Accuracy
52.4%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-2.4%
Brier Score
0.249
Calibration Slope
0.52
Avg CLV (Open)
+26.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+28.6 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
59.1%
% Positive CLV (Close)
59.9%