Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83) with home/away RPG splits. Uses the home team's home scoring rate vs. the away team's road scoring rate — naturally embedding park effects and travel fatigue.
Accuracy
52.3%
ROI (Flat 2%)
0.3%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
0.41
Avg CLV (Open)
+31.5 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+36.9 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
60.8%
% Positive CLV (Close)
61.3%