Bill James Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83): compares each team's season runs-per-game as a proxy for overall strength. No home/away split and no park factor adjustment — a pure team-quality signal.
Accuracy
53.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.6%
Brier Score
0.248
Calibration Slope
0.75
Avg CLV (Open)
+47.1 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+48.7 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
67.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
67.6%