Bill James Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83): compares each team's season runs-per-game as a proxy for overall strength. No home/away split and no park factor adjustment — a pure team-quality signal.
Accuracy
52.3%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.4%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
0.50
Avg CLV (Open)
+41.4 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+46.9 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
62.2%
% Positive CLV (Close)
63.5%