Bill James Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83): compares each team's season runs-per-game as a proxy for overall strength. No home/away split and no park factor adjustment — a pure team-quality signal.
Accuracy
54.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
1.7%
Brier Score
0.247
Calibration Slope
1.11
Avg CLV (Open)
+38.3 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+41.0 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
61.9%
% Positive CLV (Close)
63.2%