Bill James Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83): compares each team's season runs-per-game as a proxy for overall strength. No home/away split and no park factor adjustment — a pure team-quality signal.
Accuracy
54.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
2.4%
Brier Score
0.247
Calibration Slope
0.93
Avg CLV (Open)
+44.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+50.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
65.1%
% Positive CLV (Close)
67.6%