Bill James Pythagorean formula (exponent 1.83): compares each team's season runs-per-game as a proxy for overall strength. No home/away split and no park factor adjustment — a pure team-quality signal.
Accuracy
54.0%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.1%
Brier Score
0.249
Calibration Slope
0.95
Avg CLV (Open)
+39.8 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+42.3 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
64.3%
% Positive CLV (Close)
64.5%