Expected game total from FIP-adjusted run rates for both starters. Accounts for starter quality when predicting over/under lines and run-line coverage probability.
Accuracy
53.1%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-1.7%
Brier Score
0.254
Calibration Slope
0.33
Avg CLV (Open)
+46.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+47.5 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
61.2%
% Positive CLV (Close)
62.7%