Expected game total from FIP-adjusted run rates for both starters. Accounts for starter quality when predicting over/under lines and run-line coverage probability.
Accuracy
54.3%
ROI (Flat 2%)
0.4%
Brier Score
0.251
Calibration Slope
0.44
Avg CLV (Open)
+26.4 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+29.0 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.7%
% Positive CLV (Close)
58.4%