Expected game total from FIP-adjusted run rates for both starters. Accounts for starter quality when predicting over/under lines and run-line coverage probability.
Accuracy
52.3%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.4%
Brier Score
0.261
Calibration Slope
0.24
Avg CLV (Open)
+30.9 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+36.4 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.3%
% Positive CLV (Close)
57.4%