Expected game total from FIP-adjusted run rates for both starters. Accounts for starter quality when predicting over/under lines and run-line coverage probability.
Accuracy
54.0%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.5%
Brier Score
0.254
Calibration Slope
0.34
Avg CLV (Open)
+21.9 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+24.5 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.5%
% Positive CLV (Close)
57.5%