Expected game total from FIP-adjusted run rates for both starters. Accounts for starter quality when predicting over/under lines and run-line coverage probability.
Accuracy
52.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
0.4%
Brier Score
0.254
Calibration Slope
0.37
Avg CLV (Open)
+25.6 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+31.7 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
54.1%
% Positive CLV (Close)
56.0%