Assigns the historical MLB home win rate (53.7%) to every home team. Shows whether home field advantage alone is sufficient to beat the market — and what Kelly does with a small, uniform edge.
Accuracy
52.1%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-2.1%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
—
Avg CLV (Open)
−74.2 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
−68.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
44.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
47.8%