Assigns the historical MLB home win rate (53.7%) to every home team. Shows whether home field advantage alone is sufficient to beat the market — and what Kelly does with a small, uniform edge.
Accuracy
53.9%
ROI (Flat 2%)
2.9%
Brier Score
0.248
Calibration Slope
—
Avg CLV (Open)
−76.1 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
−70.6 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
46.3%
% Positive CLV (Close)
48.6%