Assigns the historical MLB home win rate (53.7%) to every home team. Shows whether home field advantage alone is sufficient to beat the market — and what Kelly does with a small, uniform edge.
Accuracy
52.1%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-3.6%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
—
Avg CLV (Open)
−76.9 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
−74.4 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
46.8%
% Positive CLV (Close)
48.1%