Assigns the historical MLB home win rate (53.7%) to every home team. Shows whether home field advantage alone is sufficient to beat the market — and what Kelly does with a small, uniform edge.
Accuracy
53.3%
ROI (Flat 2%)
0.8%
Brier Score
0.249
Calibration Slope
—
Avg CLV (Open)
−75.7 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
−73.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
47.8%
% Positive CLV (Close)
50.2%