First Lead Comeback
disprovenTier −1liveA popular live-betting theory tested against real MLB data. The strategy calls for betting the first-to-lead team when it falls behind before the 7th inning, at + money prices. Real data shows why this doesn't work.
- •Teams that score first to lead win 65.5% of games
- •When they fall behind, the market “overreacts” posting + money
- •Theorized win rate: 52–54% in these spots
- •Implied claim: ~+9% flat-bet ROI
- •348 triggers in 2,425 games (14.3%)
- •Actual win rate: +26.2%
- •Breakeven at ~+153.6 odds: 39.4%
- •Flat-bet ROI: -35.6%
Win Rate by Inning of Lead Change
Every inning column shows how often the first-lead team won when the lead change happened in that inning. No inning shows a profitable rate vs. the market price.
| Inning | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inning 2 | 56 | 13 | 23.2% | +145 | 40.8% | -17.6% |
| Inning 3 | 72 | 28 | 38.9% | +149 | 40.2% | -1.3% |
| Inning 4 | 84 | 25 | 29.8% | +153 | 39.5% | -9.8% |
| Inning 5 | 62 | 14 | 22.6% | +156 | 39.1% | -16.5% |
| Inning 6 | 74 | 11 | 14.9% | +164 | 37.9% | -23.0% |
Edge = Win Rate − Breakeven. Negative across all innings = no inning provides a profitable entry point.
Win Rate by Run Deficit at Trigger
Even the “best” scenario (down 1 run) fails to reach the break-even win rate needed to profit at typical live odds.
| Deficit | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down 1 run | 200 | 65 | 32.5% | +140 | 41.7% | -9.2% |
| Down 2 runs | 82 | 19 | 23.2% | +159 | 38.6% | -15.4% |
| Down 3+ or more | 66 | 7 | 10.6% | +187 | 34.8% | -24.2% |
5-Season Track Record (2021–2025)
The negative result is consistent — not a bad year or an anomaly.
| Season | Win Rate | Flat-Bet ROI | vs. ~39% Breakeven | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 ← | +26.2% | -35.6% | -13.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2024 | +27.6% | -31.8% | -11.8pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2023 | +26.4% | -35.0% | -13.0pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2022 | +23.2% | -42.5% | -16.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2021 | +26.0% | -36.4% | -13.4pp | ✗ unprofitable |
pp = percentage points vs. ~39% break-even at avg +154 odds. Every season falls well short.
Bankroll Simulation
Starting from $100, betting every recommended trigger at the estimated live odds. All Kelly fractions and flat betting trend negative.
Game Log — All 2025 Triggers (348 games)
Every game where the first-lead team fell behind before the 7th inning. Filter by result to see patterns — or the lack thereof.