First Lead Comeback
disprovenTier −1liveA popular live-betting theory tested against real MLB data. The strategy calls for betting the first-to-lead team when it falls behind before the 7th inning, at + money prices. Real data shows why this doesn't work.
- •Teams that score first to lead win 65.5% of games
- •When they fall behind, the market “overreacts” posting + money
- •Theorized win rate: 52–54% in these spots
- •Implied claim: ~+9% flat-bet ROI
- •362 triggers in 2,422 games (14.9%)
- •Actual win rate: +26.0%
- •Breakeven at ~+153.9 odds: 39.4%
- •Flat-bet ROI: -36.4%
Win Rate by Inning of Lead Change
Every inning column shows how often the first-lead team won when the lead change happened in that inning. No inning shows a profitable rate vs. the market price.
| Inning | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inning 2 | 65 | 18 | 27.7% | +147 | 40.5% | -12.8% |
| Inning 3 | 90 | 20 | 22.2% | +148 | 40.3% | -18.1% |
| Inning 4 | 88 | 27 | 30.7% | +156 | 39.1% | -8.4% |
| Inning 5 | 60 | 14 | 23.3% | +161 | 38.3% | -15.0% |
| Inning 6 | 59 | 15 | 25.4% | +159 | 38.6% | -13.2% |
Edge = Win Rate − Breakeven. Negative across all innings = no inning provides a profitable entry point.
Win Rate by Run Deficit at Trigger
Even the “best” scenario (down 1 run) fails to reach the break-even win rate needed to profit at typical live odds.
| Deficit | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down 1 run | 206 | 71 | 34.5% | +140 | 41.7% | -7.2% |
| Down 2 runs | 88 | 19 | 21.6% | +157 | 38.9% | -17.3% |
| Down 3+ or more | 68 | 4 | 5.9% | +192 | 34.2% | -28.4% |
5-Season Track Record (2021–2025)
The negative result is consistent — not a bad year or an anomaly.
| Season | Win Rate | Flat-Bet ROI | vs. ~39% Breakeven | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +26.2% | -35.6% | -13.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2024 | +27.6% | -31.8% | -11.8pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2023 | +26.4% | -35.0% | -13.0pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2022 | +23.2% | -42.5% | -16.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2021 ← | +26.0% | -36.4% | -13.4pp | ✗ unprofitable |
pp = percentage points vs. ~39% break-even at avg +154 odds. Every season falls well short.
Bankroll Simulation
Starting from $100, betting every recommended trigger at the estimated live odds. All Kelly fractions and flat betting trend negative.
Game Log — All 2021 Triggers (362 games)
Every game where the first-lead team fell behind before the 7th inning. Filter by result to see patterns — or the lack thereof.