First Lead Comeback
disprovenTier −1liveA popular live-betting theory tested against real MLB data. The strategy calls for betting the first-to-lead team when it falls behind before the 7th inning, at + money prices. Real data shows why this doesn't work.
- •Teams that score first to lead win 65.5% of games
- •When they fall behind, the market “overreacts” posting + money
- •Theorized win rate: 52–54% in these spots
- •Implied claim: ~+9% flat-bet ROI
- •324 triggers in 2,421 games (13.4%)
- •Actual win rate: +23.2%
- •Breakeven at ~+153.8 odds: 39.4%
- •Flat-bet ROI: -42.5%
Win Rate by Inning of Lead Change
Every inning column shows how often the first-lead team won when the lead change happened in that inning. No inning shows a profitable rate vs. the market price.
| Inning | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inning 2 | 58 | 18 | 31.0% | +147 | 40.5% | -9.5% |
| Inning 3 | 76 | 15 | 19.7% | +152 | 39.7% | -19.9% |
| Inning 4 | 79 | 21 | 26.6% | +152 | 39.7% | -13.1% |
| Inning 5 | 67 | 10 | 14.9% | +160 | 38.5% | -23.5% |
| Inning 6 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | +160 | 38.5% | -13.5% |
Edge = Win Rate − Breakeven. Negative across all innings = no inning provides a profitable entry point.
Win Rate by Run Deficit at Trigger
Even the “best” scenario (down 1 run) fails to reach the break-even win rate needed to profit at typical live odds.
| Deficit | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down 1 run | 164 | 47 | 28.7% | +140 | 41.7% | -13.0% |
| Down 2 runs | 95 | 19 | 20.0% | +157 | 38.9% | -18.9% |
| Down 3+ or more | 65 | 9 | 13.8% | +184 | 35.2% | -21.4% |
5-Season Track Record (2021–2025)
The negative result is consistent — not a bad year or an anomaly.
| Season | Win Rate | Flat-Bet ROI | vs. ~39% Breakeven | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +26.2% | -35.6% | -13.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2024 | +27.6% | -31.8% | -11.8pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2023 | +26.4% | -35.0% | -13.0pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2022 ← | +23.2% | -42.5% | -16.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2021 | +26.0% | -36.4% | -13.4pp | ✗ unprofitable |
pp = percentage points vs. ~39% break-even at avg +154 odds. Every season falls well short.
Bankroll Simulation
Starting from $100, betting every recommended trigger at the estimated live odds. All Kelly fractions and flat betting trend negative.
Game Log — All 2022 Triggers (324 games)
Every game where the first-lead team fell behind before the 7th inning. Filter by result to see patterns — or the lack thereof.