First Lead Comeback
disprovenTier −1liveA popular live-betting theory tested against real MLB data. The strategy calls for betting the first-to-lead team when it falls behind before the 7th inning, at + money prices. Real data shows why this doesn't work.
- •Teams that score first to lead win 65.5% of games
- •When they fall behind, the market “overreacts” posting + money
- •Theorized win rate: 52–54% in these spots
- •Implied claim: ~+9% flat-bet ROI
- •375 triggers in 2,427 games (15.4%)
- •Actual win rate: +26.4%
- •Breakeven at ~+154.9 odds: 39.2%
- •Flat-bet ROI: -35.0%
Win Rate by Inning of Lead Change
Every inning column shows how often the first-lead team won when the lead change happened in that inning. No inning shows a profitable rate vs. the market price.
| Inning | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inning 2 | 85 | 21 | 24.7% | +147 | 40.5% | -15.8% |
| Inning 3 | 68 | 22 | 32.4% | +150 | 40.0% | -7.6% |
| Inning 4 | 86 | 22 | 25.6% | +157 | 38.9% | -13.3% |
| Inning 5 | 70 | 21 | 30.0% | +160 | 38.5% | -8.5% |
| Inning 6 | 66 | 13 | 19.7% | +163 | 38.0% | -18.3% |
Edge = Win Rate − Breakeven. Negative across all innings = no inning provides a profitable entry point.
Win Rate by Run Deficit at Trigger
Even the “best” scenario (down 1 run) fails to reach the break-even win rate needed to profit at typical live odds.
| Deficit | Triggers | FLC Wins | Win Rate | Avg Est. Odds | Breakeven | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down 1 run | 199 | 71 | 35.7% | +140 | 41.7% | -6.0% |
| Down 2 runs | 105 | 21 | 20.0% | +157 | 38.9% | -18.9% |
| Down 3+ or more | 71 | 7 | 9.9% | +193 | 34.1% | -24.3% |
5-Season Track Record (2021–2025)
The negative result is consistent — not a bad year or an anomaly.
| Season | Win Rate | Flat-Bet ROI | vs. ~39% Breakeven | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +26.2% | -35.6% | -13.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2024 | +27.6% | -31.8% | -11.8pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2023 ← | +26.4% | -35.0% | -13.0pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2022 | +23.2% | -42.5% | -16.3pp | ✗ unprofitable |
| 2021 | +26.0% | -36.4% | -13.4pp | ✗ unprofitable |
pp = percentage points vs. ~39% break-even at avg +154 odds. Every season falls well short.
Bankroll Simulation
Starting from $100, betting every recommended trigger at the estimated live odds. All Kelly fractions and flat betting trend negative.
Game Log — All 2023 Triggers (375 games)
Every game where the first-lead team fell behind before the 7th inning. Filter by result to see patterns — or the lack thereof.