Pythagorean win probability with team run rates adjusted by opposing starter FIP relative to league average. A better-than-average starter suppresses the opponent's expected run output. Degrades to pythagorean_home when starter data is unavailable.
Accuracy
52.4%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-2.6%
Brier Score
0.255
Calibration Slope
0.30
Avg CLV (Open)
+51.1 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+52.6 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
63.0%
% Positive CLV (Close)
63.8%