Pythagorean win probability with team run rates adjusted by opposing starter FIP relative to league average. A better-than-average starter suppresses the opponent's expected run output. Degrades to pythagorean_home when starter data is unavailable.
Accuracy
53.8%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.6%
Brier Score
0.254
Calibration Slope
0.33
Avg CLV (Open)
+25.2 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+27.8 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.9%
% Positive CLV (Close)
57.7%