Pythagorean win probability with team run rates adjusted by opposing starter FIP relative to league average. A better-than-average starter suppresses the opponent's expected run output. Degrades to pythagorean_home when starter data is unavailable.
Accuracy
53.5%
ROI (Flat 2%)
1.3%
Brier Score
0.253
Calibration Slope
0.41
Avg CLV (Open)
+33.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+39.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.3%
% Positive CLV (Close)
57.9%