Pythagorean win probability with team run rates adjusted by opposing starter FIP relative to league average. A better-than-average starter suppresses the opponent's expected run output. Degrades to pythagorean_home when starter data is unavailable.
Accuracy
52.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
0.4%
Brier Score
0.262
Calibration Slope
0.23
Avg CLV (Open)
+36.7 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+42.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
58.6%