Filters fip_adjusted predictions to games where the model pick is priced as a market underdog AND the implied-probability edge exceeds 10%. Profitable in all 5 backtested seasons (2021–2025): +5.8% to +12.1% ROI, 15–23% trigger rate, consistent positive CLV (~+83 to +160 pts vs. close). Requires confirmed starting pitchers and pre-game closing odds.
Accuracy
44.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
5.8%
Brier Score
0.273
Calibration Slope
-0.04
Avg CLV (Open)
+87.6 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+91.0 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
—
% Positive CLV (Close)
65.7%