Filters fip_adjusted predictions to games where the model pick is priced as a market underdog AND the implied-probability edge exceeds 10%. Profitable in all 5 backtested seasons (2021–2025): +5.8% to +12.1% ROI, 15–23% trigger rate, consistent positive CLV (~+83 to +160 pts vs. close). Requires confirmed starting pitchers and pre-game closing odds.
Accuracy
43.4%
ROI (Flat 2%)
9.2%
Brier Score
0.281
Calibration Slope
0.46
Avg CLV (Open)
+107.0 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+111.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
—
% Positive CLV (Close)
66.1%