Filters fip_adjusted predictions to games where the model pick is priced as a market underdog AND the implied-probability edge exceeds 10%. Profitable in all 5 backtested seasons (2021–2025): +5.8% to +12.1% ROI, 15–23% trigger rate, consistent positive CLV (~+83 to +160 pts vs. close). Requires confirmed starting pitchers and pre-game closing odds.
Accuracy
43.1%
ROI (Flat 2%)
7.6%
Brier Score
0.283
Calibration Slope
-0.09
Avg CLV (Open)
+79.8 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+83.5 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
—
% Positive CLV (Close)
62.8%