FIP + K/BB ModelTier 2 — Pitcher-Adjusted
pre_gamemoneylinetotalrunlinestrikeout_propsv1.0.0
FIP-adjusted win probability and game total, enhanced with per-starter K% and BB% to generate strikeout prop probability distributions. Uses a Poisson model with mean = K/9 × expected IP/9.
Accuracy
52.4%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-2.6%
Brier Score
0.255
Calibration Slope
0.30
Avg CLV (Open)
+51.1 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+52.6 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
63.0%
% Positive CLV (Close)
63.8%