FIP + K/BB ModelTier 2 — Pitcher-Adjusted
pre_gamemoneylinetotalrunlinestrikeout_propsv1.0.0
FIP-adjusted win probability and game total, enhanced with per-starter K% and BB% to generate strikeout prop probability distributions. Uses a Poisson model with mean = K/9 × expected IP/9.
Accuracy
52.6%
ROI (Flat 2%)
0.4%
Brier Score
0.262
Calibration Slope
0.23
Avg CLV (Open)
+36.7 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+42.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.6%
% Positive CLV (Close)
58.6%