FIP + K/BB ModelTier 2 — Pitcher-Adjusted
pre_gamemoneylinetotalrunlinestrikeout_propsv1.0.0
FIP-adjusted win probability and game total, enhanced with per-starter K% and BB% to generate strikeout prop probability distributions. Uses a Poisson model with mean = K/9 × expected IP/9.
Accuracy
53.8%
ROI (Flat 2%)
-0.6%
Brier Score
0.254
Calibration Slope
0.33
Avg CLV (Open)
+25.2 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
+27.8 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
56.9%
% Positive CLV (Close)
57.7%