Coin FlipTier 0 — Baselines

Assigns 50% probability to every game. Kelly bets whenever the market prices the home team at +100 or better (i.e. the model's 50% exceeds the breakeven for that price), and skips all favorites. The Kelly curves typically collapse — aggressive sizing on underdog payouts leads to ruin. The flat-bet line bets the home team on every game at actual closing odds — favorites included.