Assigns 50% probability to every game. Kelly bets whenever the market prices the home team at +100 or better (i.e. the model's 50% exceeds the breakeven for that price), and skips all favorites. The Kelly curves typically collapse — aggressive sizing on underdog payouts leads to ruin. The flat-bet line bets the home team on every game at actual closing odds — favorites included.
Accuracy
53.3%
ROI (Flat 2%)
0.8%
Brier Score
0.250
Calibration Slope
—
Avg CLV (Open)
−59.7 pts vs close
Avg CLV (Close)
−57.1 pts vs close
% Positive CLV (Open)
60.5%
% Positive CLV (Close)
61.3%